Sure enough, Eslambolchi says, 2001 was the year we started to see consumer adoption of broadband faster than 1 Mb/s. If the state of home access in 1980 was a 1200-bit-per-second narrowband modem, we would expect a thousandfold increase in 21 years. In fact, he asserted that telecommunications data rates aren't rising just in a Moore's Law-like way they're rising at exactly the Moore's Law rate: doubling every 18 months. We could stream music wirelessly to a laptop in a coffee shop by 2003 and should be able to do the same thing to a cellphone by about 2008.Īt a recent conference in New York City, Hossein Eslambolchi, president of AT and T Labs, in Bedminster, N.J., made an observation similar to Edholm's. Take streaming music, which wasn't practical on a home desktop machine until about 1998. If we project forward, Edholm's Law says that in about five years 3G (third-generation) wireless will routinely deliver 1 Mb/s, Wi-Fi will bring nomadic access to 10 Mb/s, and office desktops will connect at a standard of 1 gigabit per second.Īs The Data Rates of these transport modes increase, applications can successfully migrate from wireline to nomadic to wireless. The typical wireline LAN is way up there at 100 Mb/s. Today, wireless technology delivers 100 kb/s through cellular networks, and nomadic bandwidth for a home wireless LAN with DSL or cable broadband access is about 1 to 2 Mb/s. ![]() For example, five years ago, wireless ran at about 5 to 10 kilobits per second, the nomadic bandwidth dial-up ran at 30 to 56 kb/s, and the typical office local-area network (LAN) ran at about 10 megabits per second.
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